ࡱ> {|}~c znjbjbSS  11Zj]$lllll\l ,_S   @R   :f"%Ȏll | STRATEGIC SURPRISE SEMINAR (PROJECT ELLIS REPORT NUMBER 4) 27 Oct 1999    Sponsored by: Wargaming Division Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory Quantico, VA 22134-5069   5205 Leesburg Pike Falls Church, VA 22041 703-578-1700 Fax: 703-578-1704 www.gamacorp.com International Energy Agency Disruption Simulation Final Report On 28-30 September 1999, 93 officials from the International Energy Agency (IEA) met at the IEA Headquarters in Paris, France with representatives from the petroleum industry and the commodities markets to consider the possible effects of a major disruption in petroleum supplies. The participants addressed two scenarios. The first dealt with a hypothetical terrorist attack on Saudi Arabia's petroleum production facilities; the second addressed the potential for supply disruptions related to Y2K. Each scenario was divided into two stages. Key issues raised by the participants are presented below. 1. Scenario I: Disruption Caused by International Terrorism Stage One: Initial Period 1.1.1 Effects of Crisis on Markets and IEA Member States For the first scenario, the participants separately considered the initial and longer-term effects of an incident involving international terrorism. Beginning with the former, the representatives of the IEA member nations generally believed that the initial effects of the petroleum disruption would be felt far more severely in the financial markets than by national economies. The participants expected prices to rise, anywhere from 10 to 100 percent, within a week. Yet, they noted that substantial stocks would remain available to limit the early effects on consumers. Indeed, as shown in Figure 1., when asked to rate the magnitude of the initial effect of the shortfall on member nations, only 10 percent of the participants (Team 5, which represented one of ten teams) anticipated substantial early impacts. Fifty percent of the participants anticipated only minimal effects. Figure 1. Stage One: Anticipated Effects of Disruption on IEA Members  Interestingly, the participants anticipated a more substantial effect of the disruption on the financial markets, with 60 percent anticipating moderately substantial effects and only 20 percent predicting minimal impact (see Figure 2). Figure 2. Stage One: Anticipated Effects of Disruption on Markets  These results stand in contrast to the expectations of the representatives of the commodities markets (hereafter traders), who anticipated severe initial impacts on both the markets and the economies of the member states. The traders' views with respect to the immediate market effects are summarized below in Figure 3.  In some respects, the traders agreed with the IEA members. They concurred with the participants that the problem would not consist of immediate, short-term shortages. Rather, the problems would involve price hikes and speculation on the futures markets. With rumors of a supply disruption, no one would be willing to sell their stocks. Rather, with huge price spikes, traders would be sorely tempted to hold onto their stocks. However, within a few days, the prices would rise too far to resist, and sales would resume. Hence, supplies would remain available, at least in the short-term. Hoarding among consumers would also likely create increased demand, and further price spikes, as consumers top off their gas tanks en masse. Yet, in contrast to the IEA representatives, the traders also anticipated severe economic effects on the member states. The traders views with respect to the effects of the disruption on the member states, and, in a preview of the issues to be addressed in greater depth in the next section, appropriate IEA response measures, are summarized below, in Figure 4.  Physical shortages would not be the primary problem, according to the traders. For instance, Venezuela and Mexico would continue to provide additional supplies, as they would not honor any Middle Eastern boycott. However, November crude is already being stocked for Y2K, which, along with consumer hoarding, will increase demand and drive prices up. So IEA members will pay higher prices for crude oil. The traders went on to note, in this context, that the IEA could, theoretically, help stop any short-term panic induced price spikes by reminding the markets of its ability to release stocks. However, statements by the IEA of their willingness to do so would likely be discounted by traders, who do not view the IEA as credible. It would therefore be critical for the IEA to stress its authority. This would likely influence industry, which would, in turn, calm consumers. These latter issues are revisited below in section 1.1.2, below. Comparing the scores between the groups is more illuminating than the raw scores themselves, which are based on artificial three-category scales. While the scores themselves may be of only limited substantive significance, the difference between the traders and the IEA members cannot be similarly discounted. The distinctions between the views of the traders and IEA representatives are readily apparent in Figure 5, which compares the anticipated effects of the early disruption on the member states and commodities markets of the IEA representatives and the traders. Figure 5: Expected Effects on Markets & Members (Stage I)  Figure 5. highlights the significant differences between the two groups. While four of the 10 IEA representative teams anticipated more severe effects on the markets, the traders anticipated equally severe market and economic effects. In fact, the traders estimation of the magnitude of the effects on the IEA members was over 50 percent greater than the average estimate of the IEA members. The corresponding figure for the anticipated effects on the markets was one-third greater anticipated severity. These figures indicate that while the IEA members generally did not expect initial financial volatility to produce noteworthy economic effects, the traders, in contrast, believed that substantial price volatility would likely produce comparably substantial economic effects. 1.1.2 IEA Response The participants next turned to the question of how the IEA should respond in the initial stages of the disruption. Should the IEA issue any public statements? Should it take any actions? In fact, on this score, the IEA representatives and the traders were in closer agreement. As shown in Figure 6, below, both groups generally agreed that the IEA should offer meaningful public statements in the initial stages of the crisis, while the traders and a majority of the IEA representatives (70%) believed that IEA should not, at this stage, take additional actions. Figure 6. Should the IEA Issue Public Statements or Take Any Actions?  The participants noted that the IEA should issue statements to the effect that it was closely monitoring the situation and stood prepared to act quickly, including possible stock draw downs, if the situation evolved. The members differed significantly from the traders, however, with respect to the content of any public statements. As shown in Figure 7, below, the traders asserted that a statement by the IEA that the agency was monitoring the situation would be viewed by the markets as an admission of helplessness or indecisiveness, and would produce an additional price spike. The traders counted that if IEA did not want to be discounted by the markets, they needed to stress their authority to release supplies. This type of statement, if rapid and decisive, would likely influence professionals more than consumers, but would nonetheless be important. Moreover, due to a two-step information flow from professionals to consumers, if the professionals were calmed, the public would also be calmed. In other words, the public has never heard of the IEA. However, if the public reads or hears comments by credible professionals to the effect that the situation is under control, they will be less likely to panic.  Similarly, the IEA representatives and the traders were largely in agreement that the IEA should not take action, beyond issuing public statements, in the initial stages of the crisis. Indeed, the traders primary advice to the IEA was to avoid publicly fixing a strike point for taking action, such as seven percent, because the markets will respond by moving right up to any such border, without crossing over. Only 30 percent of the IEA member teams advocated further IEA actions at this early stage. Among the thirty percent of IEA representative teams that advocated additional IEA actions, recommendations included drawing down stocks by three or four mb/d and conducting assessments of member countries supply and stock situations. 1.2 Stage Two: The Crisis Deepens 1.2.1 Effects of Crisis on Markets and Member States In the second stage of the first scenario, the participants were asked to consider how the markets and member states would be effected as the situation grew more severe, over time. Information remained tied to rumors, yet it was increasingly clear that a significant disruption would persist for some not-inconsiderable period of time. The participants were asked to address the same specific questions as in the first stage. Not surprisingly, given the deepening concern and continuing crisis, the IEA representatives revised their evaluations of the situation, concluding that both the markets and member states would be more severely effected than they had originally anticipated. Figure 8, below, summarizes the results individually for each team, as well as presenting the overall averages for the member teams and for the traders. Figure 8: Anticipated Effects on Markets & Members (Stage II)  About 90 percent of the IEA representatives now agreed that there would be some significant effects on the member nations. Overall, seven of the ten IEA member teams adjusted their evaluations with respect to the severity of the situation for the member states upwards. Moreover, seventy percent of the member teams now agreed that the disruption would produce a substantial reaction in the commodities futures markets. Beginning with the former, the participants anticipated further substantial price hikes, perhaps upwards of 100 percent. This would be due less to any actual physical shortages than to rumors and fears of future severe shortages. This, in turn, would produce some panic in the public, which would result in more hoarding of fuel. Public hoarding could create the physical shortages that were not necessarily caused by the terrorist incident itself. At this point, a majority of the participants anticipated significant economic effects in the member states as well. However, several teams noted that the severity of the impact would vary from region to region. Asian nations, who are most dependent upon OPEC imports from the Middle East, would be most severely effected. Turkey was also expected to face significant difficulties. In contrast, the severity of the effects in North America and Northern Europe were expected to be less severe. The bottom line was that prices were expected to spike, and stay fairly high, which would effect consumers in the member states. The psychological effects on the publics in the member states, in turn, could enhance tangible economic difficulties, by inducing such counterproductive behavior as fuel hoarding. The participants anticipated that the situation would be exacerbated by the approach of Y2K and the holiday season. Again, with respect to the markets, the participants anticipated a continuing rise in prices. Reasons for the continued price increases included the increasing immediate disruption, as well as the efforts of some highly vulnerable countries to secure additional long-term supplies and the fear that the terrorist incident will have further ramifications for production throughout the Gulf region. Overall, the number of teams anticipating a severe market reaction increased from two to seven, representing an increase of 50 percent of the participants. The traders, who had anticipated severe market and economic effects in Stage 1, maintained these evaluations in Stage 2. The traders continued to draw a direct link between market effects and real economic effects. To paraphrase how one trader highlighted this linkage: A $500 million rise in the price of oil imports represents $500 million in additional expenses that the state must endure to maintain its oil supply. This means $500 million less for something else, or higher taxes. Figure 9. Summarizes the traders views with respect to the effects of the disruption on the markets in Stage 2.  The traders believed that prices would soar. Not only would futures prices rise, but the current price for physical product would be determined by the market, and would rise to similarly high levels. In fact, prices would be rising so rapidly that the problem would not be liquidity. Plenty of stocks would exist. The primary problem would be that no one would want to sell their own product. Moreover, those who had increased their stocks in anticipation of Y2K would have completed this process and would be unwilling to sell their extra stocks in December. The net result would be a price-induced shortage. Shippers would have difficulty finding sufficient supplies to meet their delivery contracts. With regard to effects on member states, the traders emphasized the multiplier effects of a product disruption throughout the economies of the member states. Figure 10 illustrates this process.  The Figure shows how higher prices, resulting from a petroleum disruption, would be immediately effect consumers. However, the effects do not stop there. All sectors of an economy will be impacted, including other energy industries, such as the electric power utilities, and virtually all other industries. These effects can, in turn, create economic dislocations, including significant layoffs and job losses. Ultimately, if the economic effects are severe and long-lasting, some nations, due in part to vengeful public opinion, may elect to go to war to secure additional supplies, rather than continue to endure severe economic dislocations. Turning to the present scenario, Figure 11, below, summarizes the traders views. The traders agreed with the participants that the disruption would have its most severe effects east of the Suez Canal, particularly in Japan. In North America, they countered, the effects would be far less severe, as the U.S. could increase its imports from Venezuela and Mexico. In Europe, the states of the former Soviet Union would recognize an opportunity for greater profit by stepping in and replacing lost supplies. However, their infrastructure is too poor to support such a large-scale increase in production and transportation. The internal tariff structure in the states of the former Soviet Union would likely also work against their providing additional supplies. Additional supplies from the North Sea would not be forthcoming. The net result would be no substantial change in the physical product supply, but an extremely serious price situation. The spot price for crude oil and petroleum products paid by member states would rise to absurdly high levels. Moreover, this situation would be far more severe than in the earliest stages of the crisis and would likely endure for some significant period of time.  In comparing the participants views during the first and second stages, an important distinction between the views of the traders and the IEA representatives becomes apparent. In Stage I, the IEA representatives did not draw as clear a linkage between the markets and their own economies as did the traders. However, over the course of the discussions, the gap between the traders and the participants declined. By Stage II, while there remained a gap between the IEA members and traders with the traders still anticipating a more severe impact of the disruption on the IEA member states -- the magnitude of the gap was far smaller. In the first stage, the traders' provided an estimate of the market effects that was 33 percent more severe than that of the IEA representatives. The traders' then offered an estimate of the magnitude of the effects of the disruption on IEA that was 53 percent more severe than the corresponding estimate of the IEA member representatives themselves. By the second stage, the corresponding discrepancies had fallen substantially, to 10 percent and 22 percent, respectively. Similar to the traders, the members now anticipated there would most likely be a fairly close relationship between market effects and effects on the economies of the member states. 1.2.2 IEA Response The participants next considered how the IEA should respond. The two primary questions posed were again: (1) Should the IEA issue any public statement(s)?, and (2) Should the IEA take any immediate additional actions? Not surprisingly, the participants continued to favor issuing public statements Figure 12 presents the views of the participants and traders in Stage Two alongside their respective views from Stage One (as shown in Figure 6). Figure 12. Should IEA Members Issue Public Statements or Take Additional Actions? (Scenario I: Stage 1 vs. Stage 2)  However, at this stage, the IEA representatives favored more extensive public statements, most prominently concerning the willingness of the IEA governments to make oil stocks available as needed. The purpose of such a statement was twofold: first, to prepare the public for future IEA actions and second, to hopefully minimize any possible negative market and/or public impact resulting from an informational vacuum (or IEA silence). Several teams also suggested that public announcements urging demand restraint and fuel switching would be well advised. As Figure 12 also indicates, the participants reevaluated their assessment from the first stage regarding the wisdom of further IEA actions, with 80 percent now recommending additional measures by the IEA, up from 30 percent in the initial stage. The most widely cited measure recommended by the participants was an immediate stock draw down, ranging from two to four mb/d, for 90 days, in order to replace the physical loss of supplies. A majority of the teams also advocated demand restraint measures. As is apparent in Figure 13, which summarizes the views of the traders with respect to IEA actions, the traders tended to agree in many respects with the recommendations of the participants.  They noted that the market traders would be looking for reassurance from the IEA. They reiterated that the IEA must speak, and do so with authority and with substance. Vague statements to the effect that the IEA was monitoring the situation would destroy the IEAs credibility and make the situation worse than if the IEA made no statement at all. However, given the timing of the scenario in late 1999, the traders questioned the wisdom of releasing stocks prior to knowing the effects of Y2K. They also asserted that setting a stock draw down trigger at he threshold of a seven percent loss of IEA imports would cause the market to ignore the IEA in the current crisis scenario. Nevertheless, the markets will not want a piecemeal response. The IEA will need flexibility and the ability to act decisively. Overall, as shown in Figure 14, the participants considered the most important risk factor to be the limitations in implementing a draw down imposed by geography, as well as by logistical limitations. They believed a contingency plan was needed to ascertain, in advance, which member states would be most vulnerable to the disruption, the nature of such vulnerabilities, the capacity of government stocks to alleviate such vulnerabilities, and the timelines for delivery.  2. Scenario 2: Y2K-Related Disruptions The second phase of the simulation addressed the potential adverse effects on the petroleum industry of Y2K-related electronic failures. The participants began this phase by hearing a series of briefings on the status of the commodities markets, the electric power industry and of the maritime shipping industry. They then divided again into teams to answer a series of questions. In particular, the participants were asked to address four questions: (1) should there be a contingency plan, (2) should IEA issue any advance public statements, (3) should the IEA commit to an advance timetable, and (4) are there any additional steps that industry needs to take? Beginning with the latter questions, most of the participants agreed that industry understood the problems and was taking the appropriate steps to address it. No significant additional steps were viewed as necessary. Moreover, a majority of the participants believed that IEAs current preparations were sufficient, and, hence, no new timetable was needed. The existing information system was generally deemed adequate. In fact, the participants noted the current conference as indicating that the appropriate measures were already under way. One group dissented from this view, arguing that a conference should be held in early January to focus on rapid reaction. With regard to public statements, the participants were divided. Some teams recommended proactive public relations efforts by member governments to reassure the public that the IEA members had the situation under control. Other teams countered that by issuing such statements, the governments would merely focus media and public attention on the problem, and probably would cause many to worry that the problem was more serious than they had initially expected. This could create panic. Turning to the question of a contingency plan, the teams were evenly divided between those advocating, and those opposing, development of a Y2K contingency plan. Advocates cited the unpredictability of the situation, while opponents tended to downplay the likelihood of large-scale disruptions and the risk that equivocal statements could create more problems than they solve. Table 1 presents the one team's recommendation for a three-point contingency plan, as shown below: Table 1. Example of Contingency Plan Recommended by IEA Representatives Issue the following public relations statement: All the evidence is that there wont be a problem. The IEA is always looking at the oil market and consulting closely with oil company members of IAB. It is ready to utilize the stocks of member countries which are significant if the need arises. And we have put in place procedures to ensure that we can respond quickly if that is necessary. Seek agreement of members to be available at short notice in early January to participate in a meeting, either in person or via secure teleconferencing. Seek agreement of member countries, on a voluntary basis, to start process of internal paperwork to ensure that a draw down could be expeditiously implemented, if necessary. During the plenary session devoted to the Y2K scenario, the participants were asked to summarize their views with respect to the need for a contingency plan. They were also asked to state why they did or did not favor such a plan. Table 2 summarizes the views of each team with respect to the need for a contingency plan: Table 2. IEA Representatives' Views Regarding the Need for a Y2K Contingency Plan Team Is plan needed? Why or why not?1.YesNeed to start reassuring public. 2.YesCan follow demand from the 4th quarter of 1999 to develop trigger points for 1st Quarter 2000. 3.YesNeed to monitor regional problems, though this is not primarily an IEA function. 4.NoProblems will be local. IEA is the contingency, by definition. Problems cannot be anticipated. 5.NoIEA cannot get necessary detailed information from industry quickly enough. Maybe issue statement saying: no major problems foreseen; if major problems arise, we will provide alternative supplies. 6.NoIEA already has a contingency plan (reports, monitoring, press releases, conferences, etc.). Maybe announce to public in mid-December that it is ready to meet short-term problems. 7.NoDisruptions expected to be localized and minor. 8.YesA system of communications is needed to support information. 9.NoNeed to waive any restrictions on getting product to market, and prepare for CNN! 10.YesPublic statements are not needed, but the IEA should prepare a note to member governments indicating that most Y2K problems are likely to result from public panic rather than physical shortages. Turning to the traders perspectives, Figure15 summarizes the traders main conclusions regarding the Y2K contingency.  Figure 15 indicates that the traders believed Y2K-related problems would be unrelated to oil supplies. Rather, notwithstanding the reassuring briefing provided by an electric power consortium representative, the traders believed electric power to be the greatest risk factor. They argued that the best insurance against such problems would be to buy February electric power futures. The downside of such an action would be that the IEA might then exacerbate market-related problems with respect to the electric power industry. The net effect was that the IEA would need to work hard to prepare for Y2K, primarily by developing a thorough list of whom to call in the event of every possible type of eventuality. The goal would be to make IEA the single best comprehensive clearinghouse of information regarding the oil industry, and the potential effects of Y2K on the oil industry. The traders next addressed the perceptions of the markets regarding Y2K. Their views are summarized in Figure 16, below.  They informed the IEA members that the market is currently drawing stocks, which is producing a backwardization effect. Moreover, any current price rises are not necessarily Y2K related. Most importantly, the traders noted that if Russian natural gas was disrupted due to Y2K-related problems, IEAs refined heating oil stocks could function as a substitute fuel source for the electric utilities, within 3-4 days. The traders then addressed the potential for market volatility, as shown in Figure 17, below.  The traders attributed market volatility primarily to uncertainty. Not only is the market uncertain of the magnitude of the problem, but it is also uncertain as to the duration of any problems. As a result, many players are currently withdrawing, and will continue to withdraw, from the markets, in order to hedge their risks. This reduces liquidity. These problems are exacerbated by the uncertainties surrounding quantifying the extent and effects of hoarding. We know there is hoarding going on. But we dont know how much or how strong an impact it is having. The traders concluded this session by noting that their biggest concern was whether IEA would be able to respond in a sufficiently timely manner. They viewed a rapid IEA response time as the most critical factor in a successful mitigation effort.  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