CNN News Broadcast
31 January 1991

Bernard Shaw Interview with Bing West, GAMA Corporation

(excerpt)

FOCUS:

DOE & Admiral Watkins

Preparations for Desert Storm
Shaw: Now joining us to discuss the gaming strategies for ground war is Bing West, former Assistant Defense Secretary in the Reagan administration, who now specializes in simulations for the GAMA Corporation.
Shaw: In preparing for this session with you, apparently you have an example of wargaming being used in the run up to this war.
West: Yes, that's correct. Starting in October, the Secretary of Energy, Admiral Watkins, held a series of games. He had five exercises. His purpose was to bring in the private sector, the corporations, those who work in the markets as well as those in the agencies of government. He showed, by going through different scenarios, that there was no reason for an increase in price, if war broke out, in terms of oil. There were adequate oil supplies If you look at different scenarios or combinations, you are not going to discover that that there was a way in which the Iraqi attacks could seriously disrupt the oil supplies. As a consequence, when the markets opened and we had successful first night bombing raids, the price actually dropped by about $10 a barrel. That has saved the consumers in America approximately $170 million a day.
Shaw: So, essentially, in an effort to head off a market stampede, Admiral Watkins sought to calm the markets before war broke out by talking about these various scenarios.
West: That is correct. Admiral Watkins allowed everyone to speak, to look at the various scenarios and to systematically come to the conclusion for themselves. No matter what combination they looked at, they still were going to recognize there was an adequate supply of oil.